Lessons learned from the first leg between Magdeburg and Veszprém

After the 26:26 draw between SC Magdeburg and One Veszprém HC in the first leg of the Machineseeker EHF Champions League quarter-finals, everything is still up for grabs. In terms of the result, it looks like a very average and balanced game. However, a look at the detailed statistics provides some very interesting insights that were anything but average and balanced.

Lessons learned from the first leg

A look at the advanced statistics of the first leg immediately reveals that the game itself was rather slow as Veszprém had 46 possessions and Magdeburg 47. For the Hungarian side it was the lowest this season, for Magdeburg the second-lowest.

Besides that, the pace statistics for Magdeburg were around their average for the season. Their offensive possessions were 37.2 seconds long on average, which is almost exactly their season average. In addition, they had slightly more possessions under 20 seconds and slightly more possessions over 60 seconds than usual, but nothing really noticeable.

For Veszprém, however, things looked different. With 40.1 seconds on average, they had their longest offensive possessions in a game this season. This is particularly remarkable as they are the team with the shortest possession time in the entire Machineseeker EHF Champions League with an average of 30.4 seconds.

And Magdeburg are not known for forcing their opponents into particularly long attacks. With an average of 34.4 seconds, they are only slightly above the competition average. Bennet Wiegert’s team only managed to force their opponents into longer possessions against Zagreb (43.1 seconds) than against Veszprém.

54.4 per cent of the possessions of Xavi Pascual’s team were longer than 60 seconds, by far their highest number of the season and the 12th highest of any team in a game this season. Their previous season-high was 38.8 per cent against Orlen Wisla Plock, while their season average is 28.2 per cent, the fifth-lowest.

Nevertheless, in the end, Veszprém had the better shot percentage (61.9 compared to 60.5 per cent) and fewer turnovers (six compared to nine) in the first leg on Wednesday. So, even though they did not have their usual possessions, that was not a big disadvantage for them.

Another significant asset for Magdeburg were second chances. After 29.4 per cent of unsuccessful shot attempts, they remained in possession, while Vesprém did not have even half as much, with 12.5 per cent. Over the whole season, Veszprém are actually the better team with 17.6 per cent compared to 14.6. However, Magdeburg only conceded the third-fewest on average with 15.1, while Vesprém have problems here defensively, as they are the third-weakest with opponents staying in possession after 18.3 per cent of their missed shots.

The third main topic covers the suspension minutes. Just Magnus Saugstrup received one two-minute suspension; besides that, no other players from Magdeburg had to leave the court for two minutes. Veszprém had a total of six penalty minutes — Sergei Kosorotov, Nikola Grahovac and Patrik Ligetvári received one each.

Overall, minutes in superiority are a clear advantage. On average, 0.34 more goals are scored in two minutes by the team in superiority compared to the team in inferiority. So this can be a great advantage.

Where both teams stand over the season

Despite these three main advantages in the first leg, Magdeburg were not really able to capitalise on them. In the end, Veszprém still scored the same number of goals, and with the home advantage they go into the second leg as favourites.

Nevertheless, a lot will depend on Magdeburg having these three strengths in the second leg as well, because if they can once again force Veszprém into long attacks — and thus less promising shooting positions —, generate more second chances and get fewer suspension minutes, it will be very difficult for Veszprém to make up for these big disadvantages again.

Looking at data from the whole season, Veszprém are favourites as well. They are the only team in the competition that ranks in the top three in offence (second with 30.1 opponent adjusted goals per 50 possessions) and defence (third with 26.8 opponent adjusted goals conceded per 50 possessions).

Magdeburg lag somewhat behind in both areas. They are eighth in attack (28.9) and sixth in defence (27.3). However, it should not be forgotten that Magdeburg had a few injury problems throughout the season, which have somewhat improved.

Rating and comparing teams fairly in competitions such as the Machineseeker EHF Champions League is complicated, as the teams do not play against the same opponents and there are differences in the opponents’ quality, especially now in the knockout stage. Rating teams by numbers that are adjusted for possessions played is significantly more meaningful than just the raw number of goals (conceded), because it makes the teams actually comparable since the raw number of goals is not only influenced by efficiency, but also by the number of possessions (whether a team and their opponents play fast or slow).

While injuries are not taken into consideration, the numbers can also be adjusted for opponent strength. The adjustment is done by calculating how many goals (conceded) per 50 possessions would be expected for each game and team by the number of goals the opponents scored and conceded per 50 possessions in their other games. The so-called “garbage time”, when the game is already decided, is also filtered out. The differences to the actual goals scored and conceded can then be added to the goals scored or conceded per 50 possessions to have this adjusted rating.

The model introduced in the article on the quarter-finals also shows that Veszprém are the favourites to reach the final. According to this model, the probability of the Hungarian side going through to the Truckscout24 EHF FINAL4 is 64.8 per cent. For Magdeburg it is 26.7 per cent and for a seven-metre penalty shootout it is 8.5 per cent — so anything is still possible.

More from data analyst Julian Rux can be found at Handballytics.de. There you can read his latest articles, in which he analyses all kinds of handball topics from new, data-based perspectives. You can also find him on Instagram, Bluesky, Threads and WhatsApp Channels.

Match photos © Eroll Popova