Four players who perfectly embody the TruckScout24 EHF FINAL4 teams
Throughout the course of the EHF Champions League Women and the Machineseeker EHF Champions League, data analyst Julian Rux provides the handball community with deep insights into the numbers behind the game, analysing what the data says about teams’ and players’ performances. Next up is the preview of the TruckScout24 EHF FINAL4 2025, including a look at the probabilities of winning the trophy for the four participants.
Gidsel the main man
For second-time EHF FINAL4 2025 participants Füchse Berlin, it is of course World Player of the Year Mathias Gidsel who represents their game like no other player. He controls his team’s attack and led Berlin to recording statistically the most effective offence in the competition, with an opponent-adjusted 30.5 goals per 50 possessions.
What do we mean by "opponent-adjusted"? Rating and comparing teams fairly in competitions where all did not play against the same opponents and there are differences in the quality of the sides is difficult, especially in the knockout stage. One step for a more meaningful comparison is rating teams by numbers that are adjusted for the number of possessions played, because it makes the teams actually comparable, since the raw number of goals is not only influenced by efficiency but also by the number of possessions (whether a team and their opponents play fast or slow).
In addition, the numbers can be adjusted for opponent strength. The adjustment is done by calculating how many goals conceded per 50 possessions (as one game has roughly 50 possessions per team) would be expected for each game and team by the number of goals the opponents scored and conceded per 50 possessions in their other games. So-called “garbage time,” the final minutes of a game which is already decided, is also filtered out. To obtain the final adjusted rating, the differences to the actual goals scored and conceded can then be added to the goals scored or conceded per 50 possessions.
Behind Martim Costa and Filip Kuzmanovski, Gidsel has had the highest offensive responsibility of the competition, with a share of 22.7 per cent of his team's non-penalty shots, turnovers and received seven-metre shots. He is even the competition's second top scorer with a total of 126 goals and 7.1 scored per game, despite not taking any penalty shots.
As usual, Gidsel is shooting exceptionally efficiently, scoring 72.8 per cent of his shots from open play — the best among the 19 players with more than 100 non-penalty shots. It is therefore hardly surprising that coach Jaron Siewert's team are the most efficient shooters overall and from the field, with conversion rates of 69.6 per cent and 69.2 per cent, respectively.
On the defensive end, the “Foxes” cannot match their attacking brilliance — their opponent-adjusted 28.8 goals conceded per 50 possessions is below average. They rank 13th out of 16 teams in the competition for this statistic. Their save percentage of 26.9 is also below average and by far the worst of the four TruckScout24 EHF FINAL4 participants.
All of these stats, together with past numbers including the success of the semi-finalists, were fed into statistical models to calculate the probabilities of winning the Machineseeker EHF Champions League 2024/25. Despite their defensive problems, the offensive strength improves Füchse Berlin's chances, and the model estimates their probability of winning both games this weekend at 29.4 per cent.
Mr do it all
Thibaut Briet is the man setting the tone for Berlin’s semi-final opponents, HBC Nantes, on both sides of the field. In defence, he is arguably their most important player, as he leads the whole Machineseeker EHF Champions League 2024/25 in blocks, with 1.2 per game. Together, Nantes block 4.3 per cent of their opponent’s non-penalty shots — the second most in the competition. Overall, Gregory Cojean’s team has the fifth most effective defence, with an opponent-adjusted 27.1 goals per 50 possessions.
But it is not just on the defensive end, where Briet is so important for his team. In attack, only Aymeric Minne has a higher offensive responsibility for the French side. Briet’s share of attacks completed by non-penalty shots, received seven-metre shots or turnovers is the 23rd highest in the competition among players to have played at least 10 games, with 14.1 per cent, while Minne is the ninth highest with 19.1 per cent. But altogether, Nantes’ attack statistically ranks just ninth with an opponent-adjusted 28.8 goals per 50 possessions.
However, Briet's importance to his team does not change the fact that they go into the TruckScout24 EHF FINAL4 2025 as underdogs. The model sees them as winners only 15.6 per cent of the time — less than all the other teams — as they do not have any statistical peaks in the current season and their team is also seen as the weakest of the four overall.
The insurance of Barça’s strong defence
While coach Carlos Ortega's attack is statistically not the best (opponent-adjusted 29.1 goals per 50 possessions — fifth place), it is once again the defence that is Barça’s flagship. With an opponent-adjusted 26.7 goals conceded per 50 possessions, they have the second most effective defence in the competition.
Especially remarkable are the shooting percentages the Catalan side allows, with an average of 58.8 per cent — no other team keeps their opponents to a lower rate. In addition, Barça’s opponents have the lowest success rate from the field (58.1 per cent) and from seven-metre shots (66.2 per cent).
As has become the norm each season, the man who anchors this top defence and is the main reason for the low shooting percentages from Barça's opponents is Emil Nielsen. Among all 28 goalkeepers that have faced at least 150 attempts on their goal, the Dane has the best average save percentage, at 33.7. In addition, he has the second-highest save percentage — 33.9 — from open play among all 26 goalkeepers that have faced at least 150 non-penalty shots. Nielsen is outstanding on seven-metre shots as well, with a save rate of 27.4 per cent, which is the best among all 15 goalkeepers that have faced at least 30 attempts.
Due to Nielsen, their strong defence and the fact that they have proven in the past that they know how to perform when the stakes are highest, the model sees Barça as favourites to win it all, at 35.1 per cent.
Almost unstoppable with Claar
Barça’s semi-final opponents SC Magdeburg have had a season with a lot of ups and downs. They had major injury problems and finished their group with more losses than wins.
One of those injured players was Felix Claar. The Swede missed all 10 matches before the winter break. Without him, Magdeburg won just seven points in 10 games — that is, 0.7 points per game. Since his comeback, they have won 13 points in eight games (1.6 points per game). That difference of 0.9 points per game is the same as Claar's teammate Tim Hornke and is by far the biggest among all players that both missed and played at least seven games this season.
The difference between Claar and Hornke, however, is their importance to the team. In the eight games he played, Claar was responsible for 21.0 per cent of his team's attacks which ended either with a shot from open play, a received seven-metre shot or a turnover — the highest for his team and eighth highest in the competition. In contrast, right wing Hornke is at 1.0 per cent here — the lowest in his team besides goalkeepers and youngsters promoted from the second team.
With 5.9 field goals per game, Claar ranks fifth in this category. He achieved this with a shooting percentage of 66.2, ranking 19th among all 51 back-court players with at least 70 throws.
However, due to the many injury-related issues, SCM’s overall ratings are not those of a normal TruckScout24 EHF FINAL4 team. With an opponent-adjusted 28.9 goals per 50 possessions and an opponent-adjusted 27.8 goals conceded per 50 possessions, they rank seventh across all teams in the competition in both metrics. On the one hand, these numbers are only predictive due to a limited extent in individual games, and on the other, the significance of the figures for Magdeburg are further limited due to the many games missed by players due to injuries. With all things considered, the model gives them only a 19.9 per cent chance of winning in Cologne.
